I'm not going to rehash all the points reported and discussed in the media. Instead I'm going to offer my basic insight on labor negotiations. Last year I sat on the union side of the table as a negotiator for a new labor contract with the company I work for. It was very stressful, tiring and educational.
The first point to realize is that March 3rd is not a hard deadline. It is common practice in my industry to renew the current contract on a rolling basis during negotiations. If negotiations are progressing and the deadline looms, both parties usually mutually agree to renew the existing contract every 24 hours. This allows negotiations to continue beyond the deadline and avoid a work stoppage.
Another point to consider is that most deal making gets done in the last two weeks. My sessions met constantly for six weeks but the meat and potatoes wasn't really nailed down until the final three weeks. Right now some wonder why there is no sense of urgency between the two sides. There is but right now they are involved in waging the war of public relations. Saturday before the Super Bowl they had a formal full session between both negotiating committees. Expect more frequent meetings after the Super Bowl. Most of the deal making gets done off the record as evidence by informal meetings between NFL commissioner Roger Goodell and NFLPA executive director DeMaurice Smith.
Both sides know the parameters of what they will accept and won't accept. It's a giant game. Both sides overshoot what they are seeking and eventually look to meet in that middle common ground. As an example, in my negotiations we knew already what we going to get as raises for the length of the new contract. We have an industry standard and the union and company know the standard is the outcome. Yet we over shot the standard and of course the company lowballed their offer. In the course of two days, offers and counter offers were passed over the negotiating table and we eventually met at the industry standard. Why this game is played I really don't know. I just know from first hand experience that it is.
The bottom line is that the NFL is a cash cow for both sides. The owners want a little more of the revenue back and I can't say I blame them. The players want to keep what they won in previous negotiations. I can't blame them either. I think the players will end up giving back some of the revenue but not as much as the owners want. In return, they will get a rookie scale to free up more money for vets instead of unproven high picks. Also I think the owners will give more benefits or money for retired players.
If there is a work stoppage, it will be over free agency, salary caps and maybe a cadre of hardline owners who will refuse to bend any toward the players demands.
I read in a Sporting News Daily article that the owners can start imposing work rules on players once the deadline passes. The players can stop it by appealing to the National Labor Board. From what I understand this is not true. The owners can only impose new rules on the players if negotiations reach an impasse. For impasse to occur, the NFLPA must show an unwillingness to make any movement or progress in negotiations. As long as they continue to negotiate in good faith, owners cannot declare an impasse. A lock out is not impasse. An lock out is the owners refusing to allow the players to return to work without a new contract or renewal of the old one. During the lock out, negotiations could continue and make progress.
In the end, both sides will not shoot the golden goose. They will get a deal done before the draft and camps will open on time. Of course, that's just my opinion. There could be a complete meltdown across the table. Hot heads might prevail and gum up the process.
