First off are some sound bites I edited out of ESPN podcasts. They are giving love to my Texans.
This take is a little dated after the Astros lost a couple of games to Arizona but it's worth a post.
Well damn, I had the Houston Astros dead and buried. Right now the team is 7 1/2 games behind in the NL wild card race. Recently the Astros have been an unbelievable post All-Star team. There was the run in 2004 when Jimy Williams was fired and Phil Garner took the team to a 46-26 second half run that won the NL wild card and a seven game epic series against St. Louis.
In 2005 they started 15-30 before storming to a July record of 22-7 to find themselves in the thick of the wild card race. They clinched the wild card on the last day of the season and went on to that embarrassing sweep in the World Series. In 2006 they once again made a late season push for the wild card. They also came with in 1/2 game of the NL Central lead on Sept. 28. 2007 was a wash that saw the end of manager Phil Garner and GM Tim Purpura.
That brings us to this season. With 41 games remaining, there are four teams ahead in the wild card standings and the Astros are tied with two teams. That basically means the Astros not only have to catch the four teams in front but they must out play the teams they are tied with. It's a tall order but another incredible run and it's not out of reach. The first focus is to continue winning and try to catch the team, the Florida Marlins, in front of them. There isn't room for error though. They are on a hot streak. Let's see if they can stay hot or revert to midseason form.
As I've written before, the Astros are a mess. The farm system is in shambles. Drayton McClain doesn't want to pay high signing bonuses for top draft picks. There are no pitchers waiting in the wings to move to the major league level anytime soon. The same situation applies to the position players. It's not pretty.
That all leads me to say: the Astros either clinching the wild card spot or making hot run at it is probably the worse thing that can happen to the Astros. Why? Simple. A strong finish will more than likely validate in McClain's mind that the team is being run correctly. Why change the way things are run? McClain will continue to sign off on making one big free agent signing every two or three years. The Astros will then supplement the team with marginal players and questionable trades. McClain will probably continue to balk at paying high draft picks upfront money and the farm system will remain empty.
The direction the Astros are going in must change soon. At the top of the list is rebuilding the farm system. Unfortunately I don't think McClain has the patience to restock the farm and let the youth work their way up.
McClain also has to be more hands off in running the club. Yes he writes the checks and has the power but he's not a baseball man. The last time the Astros had a strong GM was in Gerry Hunsicker. During his reign, the Astros won four division titles and had five second place finishes. Evidently Hunsincker and McClain clashed and resulted in him leaving the club in 2004. Now the GMs are probably handcuffed by McClain. McClain needs to let Ed Wade loose and let him have free hand in rebuilding the club.
While not exactly a premier club in major leagues, the Astros are have been one of the more consistent and successful clubs since 1994. They have had multiple second place finishes, won the division four times and clinched the wild card spot two times along with one World Series appearance. If the continue on the current track the Astros will slide to the back of the pack and McClain's worse nightmare will happen: a cavernous empty Minute Maid Field.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
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