NFL Week 11, Results against the Spread, Week 12 Picks

NFL Week 11
Note: Yes I did write this. I didn't lift it from some other website. I had started writing a satirical State of the Franchise speech by Bob McNair. Then the "Friend, Romans, Countrymen" speech came to mind. This is the result.

"Hi, this is Mark Vandermeer, the voice of the Houston Texans! We are gathered here for a special news conference called by Texans owner Bob McNair. Speculation has been running wild that he has decided to fire coach Gary Kubiak now instead of waiting until the end of the season. There he is now. What the hell is he doing in a toga? Let's see what he has to say."

"Fans, Texans, Houstonians, lend me your ears
For I come to praise Kubiak, not fire him
The evil that coaches do lives after them
The good is often interred in their resumes
So let it be with Kubiak. The noble media
Hath told you Kubiak was clueless:
If it were so, it was a grievous fault
And grievously hath Kubiak answered it.
Here, under leave of the media-
For the media are all honorable;
So are they all, all honorable reporters-
Come I to speak in Kubiak’s defense.
He was my friend, faithful and just to me:
But the media says he was clueless;
And the media are all honorable men.
He hath brought many fans home to Reliant,
Whose season tickets did my general coffers fill:
Did this in Kubiak seem clueless?
When the fans had cried, Kubiak hath wept.
Cluelessness should be made of weaker stuff;
Yet the media says he was clueless;
And the media are all honorable men.
You all did see that on Draft Day
I thrice presented him Vince Young,
Which he did thrice refuse: was this clueless?
Yet the media says he was clueless;
And, sure, the media are all honorable men.
I speak not to disprove what the media wrote.
But here I am to speak what I do know.
You all did cheer him once, not without cause:
What cause withholds you then to cheer for him now?
O fickle fans! Thou are fled to brutish beasts,
And fans have lost their reason! Bear with me;
My heart is in the contract there with Kubiak,
And I must pause till it expires with me."

"Uh, I think Bob McNair is competing with Al Davis for most insane
owner. Back to you guys in the studio."

My apologies to William Shakespeare.

Week 11 Results vs. the Spread
After a tremendous week ten against the spread, I fell back to earth with a 7-8 record. As per the guidelines I set up at the beginning of the season, I didn't make a pick between Bears vs. Packers since there was no line posted when I made my selections.

What did me in this week? I took a bunch of points in what turned out to be sucker bets. I bit on double digit spreads in taking the Panthers (-14) over the Lions and Dolphins (-10.5) over the Raiders. The bigger spreads hurt me too. The Texans(+8) over the Colts was tempting especially given their implosion against the Ravens the previous week. The call at the end of game of the Chargers @Pittsburgh was another game that hurt the bottom line. I really thought the Redskins would pound the Cowboys into submission but they didn't.

On the plus side of the ledger, my Browns streak continues. It's very dangerous to pick against the Browns. Even if they lose they manage to keep within the spread. I figured right about the Giants(-7) against the Ravens. Like I stated when I made the pick, the Giants are just that good. They seem to be getting stronger as the season rolls on. I still don't get why the line was so low in the Titans(-3) at the Jaguars. Picking against the Titans is a sucker bet like picking against the Browns. The Titans are 9-1 against the spread.

I didn't know how to rule on the tie between the Bengals and Eagles (-9) but then I realized that a tie in the game is a loss for me. I picked the Eagles to win by more than nine. It was a tie and I lose. Ouch.

Finally, a word on the outcome of the Steelers and Chargers ending. The blown call at the end didn't change the outcome of the game but it changed the outcome for those who gambled. People who thought they wonsuddenly found themselves in the short end of the stick. That's just tough luck in my opinion. First, I don't think anyone should be betting with money they can't afford to lose. If you're betting the mortgage money on a game you need help. Second, bad calls are a risk in every game. It's why it's called gambling. Granted that referees shouldn't be affecting the outcome of a game but sometimes they do and it's part of the inherent risk of gambling. Bottom line in all gambling is that the outcome is influenced by multiple factors. That's just the nature of the game.

Week 12 Picks
Bengals(+11) @ Steelers - I'm learning this on the fly and not consulting any source to make my picks. I've learned that most double digit lines are sucker bets. Bengals

Texans(+3) @Browns - One thing I've repeatedly stated, pick agains the Browns at your own peril. Browns

Bills(-3) @Chiefs - At season's beginning the line would have been much higher. Shows how far the Bills have fallen. Bills

Jet's(+5) @Titans - Finally Titans get some betting respect. Beating up on the Bears and Jags have made them more than a three point favorite for a change. Titans

Patriots(+1.5) @Dolphins - The Pats lost a close one last week and the Dolphins blew them out with the Wildcat formation early in the season. I don't think a Bill Belichick let's the Fish blow them out again. I'll take the road dog in this one. Patriots

49ers(+10) @Cowboys - Sucker bet? The 'niners have played better offense the last two weeks. Dallas will try to get it's groove back in Tony Romo's second game back. 49ers

Eagles(+1) @Ravens - Ravens offense is more than complimenting the defense as of late except agianst the Giants. Aside from that game, the offense has put up 27, 29, 37 and 41 points. I'm telling you the Giants are that good. Ravens

Bears(-8.5) @Rams - Bears are sputtering on both sides of the ball. Rams have reverted to the Rams that got coach Scott Linehan fired. This should be a pretty low scoring affair. Rams

Vikings(+2.5) @Jaguars - Adrian Peterson runs amok in Jacksonville. Vikings

Panthers(+1) @Falcons - Is this a case of the Panthers getting little respect or the Falcons getting too much respect? I think the former. Panthers

Raiders(+9.5) @Broncos - This is close to sucker bet territory. The Raiders are in such disarray it's hard not to take the Broncos. Then again the Bronco defense can fall apart or not even show up. If I were really betting money, I wouldn't touch this game. But I'm not so I'll take the Broncos

Redskins(-3.5) @Seahawks - I think the Redskins will take a little frustration out on the hapless 'hawks. Matt Hasselbeck isn't full strength. Redskins

Giants(-3) @Cardinals - I like the Giants straight up in this one but I'll take them against the spread too. Giants

Colts(+3) @Chargers - I think we are about to see what the Chargers have in them for this game. Chargers

Packers(+2.5) @Saints - I don't like the Saints in this one. Don't ask why. Packers