Week 1 Unkle Monkee vs. the Spread

NFL Week 1 Picks

It’s that time of year again. Me vs. the Spread.

The rules are simple. I’m using the odds posted on Foxsports.com which lists odds from different book makers. I went with the odds posted on Tuesday so if there are any discrepancies it's due to updated odds. Most are usually the same spread but when a difference occurs, I go with the majority. If there is no line posted, I cannot make it a selection and call it a pick ‘em. Pushes don’t count since in Vegas I wouldn’t win or lose.

I didn’t keep a running tally last year but I have it on empirical evidence that I would have lost my ass in Vegas. I will try to keep a running tally this year. I won’t pick straight up. That’s too easy and that’s the reason there are point spreads.

Over/under bets are sucker bets so I don’t pick.

Titans (+6) @ Steelers – Titans may have a chip on their shoulders after posting the best record but failing to advance in the playoffs. Steelers and the home crowd will be fired up. I imagine a defensive battle. Take the Titans and the points.

Dolphins (-4) @ Falcons – The two surprise teams of last season meet first. The Falcons defense has plenty of holes but the “Wildcat” formation became decreasingly productive. I’ll stick with the road favorite Dolphins.

Chiefs (+13) @ Ravens - Double digit spreads are usually a dangerous bet. I think this game is the exception to the rule. The Chiefs are a mess with no apparent offensive direction. Mix in the Ravens defense at home and a happy blowout occurs. Ravens.

Broncos (+4) @ Bengals – Broncos are in bad shape. The Bengals look to return to the playoff hunt with Carson Palmer back at quarterback. Bengals win handily.

Vikings (-4) @ Browns – The point spread was from 3-4.5 but two books have a 4 point spread. Drama Queen Brett Favre makes his Vikings debut. Adrian Peterson runs amok in Cleveland. Another road favorite wins. Vikings.

Jaguars (+7) @ Colts – Plenty of question marks in this game. Was 2008 just an off season for the Jags. Will the loss of Tony Dungy affect Peyton Manning? This much I know, the Colts are much better team than the Jags. Colts.

Lions (+13) @ Saints – Drew Brees in one of the best in the game and the Lions are one of the worst. The Lions though have been purged and a new regime rules the land. While they don’t win, I think an inspired Lions make it a closer than 13 point contest. Lions.

Cowboys (-6) @ Buccaneers – Uh boy, I don’t even have to try on this selection. Bucs have gone from contender to laughing stock in two seasons. Jon Gruden is gone and so is the new offensive coordinator before just days before the season. Cowboys.

Jets (+4.5) @ Texans – Two books had Jets (+5), two had Jets (+4.5) and one had no line. I went with the 4.5 spread to avoid the possibility of a push. Texans plan to unveil their new defense against the Jets rookie quarterback. The Jets will try to pound the ball and the Texans run defense is suspect. The Texans are a good home team. Texans.

Eagles (-2) @ Panthers – Panthers were a disaster in the playoffs and I expect a hangover from that loss. The Eagles though were one game away from the Super Bowl and are reloaded. Eagles.

49ers (+6.5) @ Cardinals – The Cards bulked up the running game with Beanie Wells and still boast the three headed WR monster of Anquan Bolden, Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston. Cards win handily at home.

Rams (+8.5) @ Seahawks – 8.5 points is to much for an opening game. Every team is fired up at some level about the season opener. I think bookies are banking on people remembering last year’s listless Rams. Rams lose but cover the spread.

Redskins (+6.5) @ Giants – Again too many points for a home opener and two division rivals who have an intense rivalry. Redskins make a game of it and cover.

Bears (+3.5) @ Packers – Bookies are giving Green Bay a slight advantage. Usually in a close match up the home team is good for 3 points. This is going to be a good game. I’m going to take the Bears and the points.

Bills (+10.5) @ Patriots – The Bills are another team who fired the offensive coordinator days before the season opener. The Terrell Owens show is in town. Dick Juaron is on the hotseat. Tom Brady returns from his injury ready to prove he’s healthy. Pats roll the Bills on Monday Night Football.

Chargers (-9) @ Raiders – Bookies are counting on people remembering the Raiders of last year and forgetting the Chargers. The Chargers started off slow. This is an intense division rivalry. Raiders lose but cover.

Well there you have it. Remember this is for my entertainment only. If you are making picks based on me then you're one sick fuck.