NFL Week 2 vs the Spread, Week 4 Picks

I'm really late with the week two results and obviously I didn't post any week three picks. Sometimes that happens when you have a real job.

For the week I went 8-6-1 to bring my overall record to 15-12-4. So far I'm in the money if I'm betting equal amounts in all games. Not by much but the point is to win money not lose or tie.

Week Two Highlights
I don't review all my picks but I highlight some of the good and bad guesses I made.

This week's only push was the Texans (-3) vs Redskins. The Texans met the spread in overtime.

I expected the Vikings (-5.5) to beat the Dolphins but not cover. The Dolphins won outright and gave me the win.

I figured the Ravens (-3) offense would bounce back from the bad week against the Jets. I underestimated the Bengals based on their performance against the Patriots. This game went in the loss column.

The bookies gave Tennessee to much respect with a (-5.5) so I went with the Steelers. They delivered a win for me.

The Bucs (+3) I underestimated and overestimated the Panthers. The Bucs are slowly improving and the Panthers quarterback situation is chaos. Something to keep in mind with both teams when making selections for week four.

Patriots (-3) were humbled by the Jets. The Jets offense played at a higher level than against the Ravens. Put this one in the loss side of the ledger.

I thought the Giants (+5) would put up a better fight against the Colts. I should have known the Older Manning would be angry after losing the previous week in Houston. Giants are in a free fall.

Week 4 Picks
Jets (-6.5) @ Bills - A no brainer with the Jets.

Lions (+14.5) @ Packers - I noticed a couple of years ago that most double digit spreads are sucker bets. With really no numbers to back my theory up, I also see more double digit spread wins early in the season and less in later on. I'm very hesitant to take the Packers and two touchdowns. The only thing that swings this pick to the Packs is that Matthew Stafford is out. Packers

Ravens (+2.5) @ Steelers - Steelers defense is playing lights out with a healthy Troy Palomalu. The Ravens offense has only one good outing in three games. Take the Steelers.

Broncos (+6.5) at Titans - This is a tough pick and the type of selection that can make or break your week. I think this spread is a result of the lack of respect for Denver's defense. I think the score is closer in favor of the Broncos.

49ers (+7) @ Falcons - Atlanta is on a roll. A rout of the Cardinals in week two and a OT victory over the Saints. The 49ers are in a free fall. Falcons take this plus the points at home.

Bengals (-3) @ Browns - Wow, that low. I'm thinking more of -4 or -4.5 for the Bengals but -3 it is.

Panthers (+14) @ Saints - No comment. Saint

Seahawks (-2) @ Cardinals - I think Seattle is playing a better than the Cards so gut tells me Seahawks.

Texans (-3) @ Raiders - Texans need a rebound game after last week's very disappointing loss to the Cowboys. Raiders might put up a fight but Texans cover.

Colts (-7) @ Jaguars - Colts

Redskins (+5.5) @ Eagles - It's possibly going to be an unpredictable emotional game. Donovan McNabb has a chip on his shoulder after being traded to a divisional rival. The spread for this game ranges from 4.5 to 6 points. The majority was 5.5 so that is what I use. I'm going to take the Redskins in this one.

Cardinals (+9) at Chargers - I'd like to take a pass on this one but it's not sick enough to. I don't think the Chargers cover so take the Cardinals to keep it closer than 9.

Patriots (-1) @ Dolphins - I like the Dolphins at home.