I'm really late with the week two results and obviously I didn't post any week three picks. Sometimes that happens when you have a real job.
For the week I went 8-6-1 to bring my overall record to 15-12-4. So far I'm in the money if I'm betting equal amounts in all games. Not by much but the point is to win money not lose or tie.
Week Two Highlights
I don't review all my picks but I highlight some of the good and bad guesses I made.
This week's only push was the Texans (-3) vs Redskins. The Texans met the spread in overtime.
I expected the Vikings (-5.5) to beat the Dolphins but not cover. The Dolphins won outright and gave me the win.
I figured the Ravens (-3) offense would bounce back from the bad week against the Jets. I underestimated the Bengals based on their performance against the Patriots. This game went in the loss column.
The bookies gave Tennessee to much respect with a (-5.5) so I went with the Steelers. They delivered a win for me.
The Bucs (+3) I underestimated and overestimated the Panthers. The Bucs are slowly improving and the Panthers quarterback situation is chaos. Something to keep in mind with both teams when making selections for week four.
Patriots (-3) were humbled by the Jets. The Jets offense played at a higher level than against the Ravens. Put this one in the loss side of the ledger.
I thought the Giants (+5) would put up a better fight against the Colts. I should have known the Older Manning would be angry after losing the previous week in Houston. Giants are in a free fall.
Week 4 Picks
Jets (-6.5) @ Bills - A no brainer with the Jets.
Lions (+14.5) @ Packers - I noticed a couple of years ago that most double digit spreads are sucker bets. With really no numbers to back my theory up, I also see more double digit spread wins early in the season and less in later on. I'm very hesitant to take the Packers and two touchdowns. The only thing that swings this pick to the Packs is that Matthew Stafford is out. Packers
Ravens (+2.5) @ Steelers - Steelers defense is playing lights out with a healthy Troy Palomalu. The Ravens offense has only one good outing in three games. Take the Steelers.
Broncos (+6.5) at Titans - This is a tough pick and the type of selection that can make or break your week. I think this spread is a result of the lack of respect for Denver's defense. I think the score is closer in favor of the Broncos.
49ers (+7) @ Falcons - Atlanta is on a roll. A rout of the Cardinals in week two and a OT victory over the Saints. The 49ers are in a free fall. Falcons take this plus the points at home.
Bengals (-3) @ Browns - Wow, that low. I'm thinking more of -4 or -4.5 for the Bengals but -3 it is.
Panthers (+14) @ Saints - No comment. Saint
Seahawks (-2) @ Cardinals - I think Seattle is playing a better than the Cards so gut tells me Seahawks.
Texans (-3) @ Raiders - Texans need a rebound game after last week's very disappointing loss to the Cowboys. Raiders might put up a fight but Texans cover.
Colts (-7) @ Jaguars - Colts
Redskins (+5.5) @ Eagles - It's possibly going to be an unpredictable emotional game. Donovan McNabb has a chip on his shoulder after being traded to a divisional rival. The spread for this game ranges from 4.5 to 6 points. The majority was 5.5 so that is what I use. I'm going to take the Redskins in this one.
Cardinals (+9) at Chargers - I'd like to take a pass on this one but it's not sick enough to. I don't think the Chargers cover so take the Cardinals to keep it closer than 9.
Patriots (-1) @ Dolphins - I like the Dolphins at home.
Showing posts with label NFL 2010 Week #2 Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL 2010 Week #2 Picks. Show all posts
Saturday, October 2, 2010
Friday, September 17, 2010
NFL Week 1 vs. the Line, Week Two Picks
Week one is over and it's time to assess the damage.
This was a very strange week in that there were three pushes: Vikings vs Saints (-5), Cardinals (-4) @ Rams, Bucs(-3) vs. Browns.
For the remainder of the games my record was 7-6 against the spread.
The Highlights
One line upset I called were the Texans (+2) hosting the Colts. Texans took care of business and beat the Colts straight up.
The second upset I picked was the Redskins(+3.5) over the Cowboys. A last second hold to end the game saved bettors that picked the 'skins in this one.
Ravens(+3.5) also upset the Jets. I went Ravens more as a counter pick against the over hyped Jets. That isn't really a good way to pick teams.
The Lowlights
Two teams laid eggs and it hurt the bottom line.
First off the Bengals didn't even bother to show up against the Pats. It was no contest.
The Chargers also left a stinker on the field with the Chiefs pulling off the upset.
Week 2 Picks
Not really much to analyze from last week's picks so I'll just move on to week two picks. Picks are in bold.
The point of making picks is to make money not pick every game. For the last two years, I've picked every game and kept count. After week one, three pushes and other factors, I've decided to a rule change. I can take passes on games if I so choose. I imagine this will be a rarely invoked rule though.
Chiefs (+2) at Browns - pass. Two teams in disarray. No need to waste time or money on this game.
Eagles (-7) at Lions - Lions are improving but both teams starting quarterbacks are hurt. Eagles have a much better back up in Michael Vick. Take the Eagles as the road favorite.
Dolphins (+5.5) at Vikings - Neither team was impressive during the opening week. I'm thinking the spread might be a little to wide. Dolphins lose but take the points.
Cardinals (+6.5) at Falcons - Cardinals defense is better than you might think but Falcons running back is usually a beast at home. Falcons
Ravens (-3) at Bengals - Point spread ranges from Ravens -1.5 to -3 depending where you looked. Doesn't really matter though. The Ravens defense looked solid and the Bengals offense looked like garbage in week one. Ray Lewis looks like an ageless wonder. Ravens
Bears (+7) at Cowboys - Cowboys offense struggled in preseason and carried over into week one. Seven points is a wide spread for a struggling offense. The Bears might lose but they cover.
Bills (+13) at Packers - First double digit spread of the year and usually I warn that it's a sucker bit. The Bills are possibly the worst team in the league so throw your lot with the Packers.
Steelers (+5) at Titans - This is going to be a fist fight. Neither Vince Young or Donald Dixon inspires much confidence to break the game open. Look for Chris Johnson and Rashard Mendanhall to get plenty of runs. I think the the line should be more at Pittsburgh (+3). Take the Steelers and the points.
Buccaneers (+3) at Panthers - I thought about taking a pass on this game. However, I think Panthers will take care of the Bucs at home with the run game. Panthers
Seahawks (+3.5) at Broncos - The Seahawks need to prove last week was a fluke before I start picking them against a team not named the Raiders. Broncos
Rams (+3.5) at Raiders - Same old Raiders, at least Rams have a new quarter back. Rams
Patriots (-3) at Jets - Like the oddsmakers, I give the edge to the Patriots due to the fact that they can stretch the field.
Texans (-3) at Redskins - The gut is telling me to go with the Redskins. Coming off against a win against one Texas team at home, the Redskins welcome the "other" Texas team. These aren't the Cowboys though. Texans
Jaguars (+7) at Chargers - This is one of those iffy spreads. I think it's borderline to wide. Chargers are at home and there is no rain as of kickoff. Charger
Giants (+5) at Colts - Manning vs. Manning is the story line. The mangled Colts run defense is the story. Do the Giants run amok like Houston did last week? Giants
Saints (-6) at 49ers - Last week was a debacle for the niners and the Saints handled the Minnesota Brett Favres. Saints
This was a very strange week in that there were three pushes: Vikings vs Saints (-5), Cardinals (-4) @ Rams, Bucs(-3) vs. Browns.
For the remainder of the games my record was 7-6 against the spread.
The Highlights
One line upset I called were the Texans (+2) hosting the Colts. Texans took care of business and beat the Colts straight up.
The second upset I picked was the Redskins(+3.5) over the Cowboys. A last second hold to end the game saved bettors that picked the 'skins in this one.
Ravens(+3.5) also upset the Jets. I went Ravens more as a counter pick against the over hyped Jets. That isn't really a good way to pick teams.
The Lowlights
Two teams laid eggs and it hurt the bottom line.
First off the Bengals didn't even bother to show up against the Pats. It was no contest.
The Chargers also left a stinker on the field with the Chiefs pulling off the upset.
Week 2 Picks
Not really much to analyze from last week's picks so I'll just move on to week two picks. Picks are in bold.
The point of making picks is to make money not pick every game. For the last two years, I've picked every game and kept count. After week one, three pushes and other factors, I've decided to a rule change. I can take passes on games if I so choose. I imagine this will be a rarely invoked rule though.
Chiefs (+2) at Browns - pass. Two teams in disarray. No need to waste time or money on this game.
Eagles (-7) at Lions - Lions are improving but both teams starting quarterbacks are hurt. Eagles have a much better back up in Michael Vick. Take the Eagles as the road favorite.
Dolphins (+5.5) at Vikings - Neither team was impressive during the opening week. I'm thinking the spread might be a little to wide. Dolphins lose but take the points.
Cardinals (+6.5) at Falcons - Cardinals defense is better than you might think but Falcons running back is usually a beast at home. Falcons
Ravens (-3) at Bengals - Point spread ranges from Ravens -1.5 to -3 depending where you looked. Doesn't really matter though. The Ravens defense looked solid and the Bengals offense looked like garbage in week one. Ray Lewis looks like an ageless wonder. Ravens
Bears (+7) at Cowboys - Cowboys offense struggled in preseason and carried over into week one. Seven points is a wide spread for a struggling offense. The Bears might lose but they cover.
Bills (+13) at Packers - First double digit spread of the year and usually I warn that it's a sucker bit. The Bills are possibly the worst team in the league so throw your lot with the Packers.
Steelers (+5) at Titans - This is going to be a fist fight. Neither Vince Young or Donald Dixon inspires much confidence to break the game open. Look for Chris Johnson and Rashard Mendanhall to get plenty of runs. I think the the line should be more at Pittsburgh (+3). Take the Steelers and the points.
Buccaneers (+3) at Panthers - I thought about taking a pass on this game. However, I think Panthers will take care of the Bucs at home with the run game. Panthers
Seahawks (+3.5) at Broncos - The Seahawks need to prove last week was a fluke before I start picking them against a team not named the Raiders. Broncos
Rams (+3.5) at Raiders - Same old Raiders, at least Rams have a new quarter back. Rams
Patriots (-3) at Jets - Like the oddsmakers, I give the edge to the Patriots due to the fact that they can stretch the field.
Texans (-3) at Redskins - The gut is telling me to go with the Redskins. Coming off against a win against one Texas team at home, the Redskins welcome the "other" Texas team. These aren't the Cowboys though. Texans
Jaguars (+7) at Chargers - This is one of those iffy spreads. I think it's borderline to wide. Chargers are at home and there is no rain as of kickoff. Charger
Giants (+5) at Colts - Manning vs. Manning is the story line. The mangled Colts run defense is the story. Do the Giants run amok like Houston did last week? Giants
Saints (-6) at 49ers - Last week was a debacle for the niners and the Saints handled the Minnesota Brett Favres. Saints
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