Saturday, October 18, 2008

Week 6 vs. the Spread results, Week 7 picks

Week six results were decent. Let's just say I'm not going to make a living moving out to Vegas and gambling football. This week's total was 8 wins and six losses.

On the upset side of the ledger, it paid off taking the Falcons and the Browns. I didn't really expect the Browns to win and I was kind of counting on some kind of Giants let down. I figured the Giants would fail to cover but still win. That's mainly why I went with the Browns. The other dog that paid off for me was the Packers (+1.5). With the Seahawks ailing I couldn't figure out why the Packers were underdogs. I know there is some concern about Aaron Rodger's shoulder but last week he proved he could still play well.

On the opposite side, which dogs got up and bit me when I picked the favorites? The Vikings, Redskins, Broncos and Cowboys were all favorites that I went with and they lost. The stunner was the Vikings and Redskins. I thought the Vikings would just blow out the Lions and the same with the 'skin against the Rams. Taking the Broncos is always a risk given that the defense is so shaky. The Cowboys are becoming a risk now that the circus is in town. Romo's status seems uncertain after initially being reported out for four weeks. Add in Pacman Jones' suspension, T.O. being shut down and the unknown factor of how Roy Williams will pan out and the Cowboys are a big question mark.

The only game that I picked a winner but failed to cover was the Texans over the Dolphins. The Texans won 29-28 but failed to cover the 3 point spread. Even if they had converted the 2-point try at the end of the game it would be a push at best.

Now a day late with the week seven picks vs. the spread.

Titans(-9) @Chiefs - The line opened at +7.5 Chiefs and has moved to +9. I didn't watch when the line moved but I guess it was on the announcement of Larry Johnson's suspension. Titans

Chargers @Bills - It's a pick 'em with no spread. Usually the home team will get -3 just on the fact of home field advantage. There is some concern about the after effects of a concussion to Bills quarterback Trent Edwards. I think the Bills will be good enough for the home win.

Steelers(-9.5) @Bengals - It looks like Carson Palmer will be out again this week. Regardless I don't think it made a difference on the line. The Bengals are a mess and Marv Lewis is more than likely gone after the season. Steelers

Ravens(+3) @Dolphins - The Ravens were pummelled by a resurgent Colts offense. Miami's Wildcat accounted for one of their touchdowns against the Texans and nothing else. The Ravens don't have an effective offense to help out the defense. Going with the home team Dolphins.

Cowboys(-7) @Rams - The line dropped from an open of -10.5 for the Cowboys. Like the KC-Titans match up, I don't watch the lines day to day so I'm guessing the line moved on the news of Tony Romo's broken pinkie. The Cowboys are a mess right now and the Rams won their first game of the season last week at the Redskins. Even though the 'boys are much more talented than the Rams there are to many questions surrounding them right now. This is the toughest game for me to pick this week. Brad Johnson? Give me a break but I'm going with the talent here. Cowboys

Vikings(+3) @Bears - The Vikings have been a major disappointment this season. I don't see any reason to select them. Bears

Saints(+3) @Panthers - Panthers didn't look potent against the Bucs last week. I don't think they'll look any better against the Saints even if they are playing at home. I hate the Saints and it pains me to take them since I want them to lose but never bet with your heart. Saints

49ers(+10.5) @ Giants - I selected the Browns to make it close to where the Giants wouldn't cover but didn't think they'd pull off the win. This week I don't think the Giants will struggle against the 'niners. Giants

Lions(+9.5) @Texans - The Texans offense is actually pretty scary sometimes and I mean that in both a good and bad way. When they are clicking they seem unstoppable. When they are getting brain farts they look awful. I think the Texans will look scary good more often than scary bad against the listless Lions. Texans

Browns(+7.5) @Redskins - This was the second toughest match up for me to make a pick. After the upset the Browns pulled off and the Redskins loss to the previously winless Rams, I thought about putting the names in a hat and drawing a name. Once again I'm going with the theory the Browns will make a game of it but still lose and the Redskins failing to cover. Browns

Colts(-1.5) @Packers - The Pack have been playing well some games and flat other games. The Colts seem to have found their stride after coming back on the Texans two weeks ago. If Packer RB Ryan Grant were running better I'd go with the Pack. Instead I see the Colts putting up another good effort and beating the Packers. Colts

Seahawks(+10.5) @Buccaneers - Oh boy, this one is a sicky. I don't know what to make of the Bucs with coach John Gruden and his quarterback carousel. Seahawks are just a bad team with injuries right now. Buccaneers

Broncos(+3) @Patriots - I think the odds makers are being generous in this match up. No way I take the Pats and their aging defense and listless offense against the Jay Cutler's arm and the Broncos. Broncos

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My Sports Allegiances

My favorite teams are in no particular order: Houston Texans, San Antonio Spurs(NBA champs 99, 03, 05, 07, 14) and the Houston Cougars, Pittsburgh Penguins (Stanley Cups 91, 92, 08, 16, 17)
My secondary teams are: Houston Dynamo(MLS Champs 06, 07), Houston Astros (NL Champs 05), Houston Rockets (NBA Champs 94, 95)
Teams I Hate: Anything out of Dallas
Teams I Enjoy Seeing Lose: Texas Longhorns, Texas A&M Aggies, Baylor Bears football
Teams that are Insignificant: rice owls