Week 5 Results vs. the Spread

I think I did better than last week.

This week I'll actually try and analyze what went right and what went wrong.

Last week there were five double digit spreads. I've stated in the past that I'm leery of double digit spreads. Still I have to consider the teams involved and over all play before I make the pick. I don't blindly go select a team just because it's a double digit dog.

The Ravens were ten point favorites over the Bengals. I think sometimes the line is based on perceptions and not actual facts. Fact is the Bengals only had one loss, Carson Palmer is healthy and the Ravens gave up a ton of pass yards to Phillip Rivers. On top of that, the Bengals are playing solid defense. I didn't think the Bengals would win straight up but I did believe 10 points was to high a spread for two teams that were playing well.

The Vikings were eleven point favorites over the Rams and the Steelers had the same spread against the Lions. In the Vikings-Rams match up, it was actually a pretty easy pick. The Rams are just that awful. Detroit showed some life against Chicago but the Steelers rediscovered a running game with Rashard Mendenhall. I took the Steelers to dominate the Lions. I was correct with the Vikings but underestimated the Lions.

The other double digit spreads were the sixteen point both the Eagles over the Bucs and the NY Giants over the Raiders. I was a little bit concerned about Donovan McNabb's health in his return but I guessed that the Bucs were just that bad. In the NY Giants-Raider game, I figured if the Texans manhandled the Raiders then the NY Giants were going to destroy them. I was right in both cases.

In the double digit category I went 3-1.

As for the rest of the games I went 9-4, if I did my numbers right.

The biggest shocker was the Broncos upsetting the Patriots. I had the Pats taking care of business in Denver. I think the Broncos are the real deal...for now.

I thought the Seattle vs. Jacksonville match up was going to be a risky play. If I were putting actual money on the line I would pass up on this game. I took the 'hawks but I don't think anyone had a clue they would roll the Jags the way they did.

Chiefs hanging with the Cowboys hurt me. As a Cowboy hater I was pulling for KC but never let emotions get in the way of betting. Dallas pulled out the last minute heroics against a weak Chiefs. Says something about the Cowboys.

The Sick Old Man game of the week was the Bills favored by six over the Browns. I knew both teams were inept but not this bad...wow what a stinker.

Finally, anything less than a TD and I'm not betting on the Titans. They just flat out suck this year.

I'll have week six picks tomorrow.